A number of Afghan businessmen warned on Wednesday that if no security pact was signed between Washington and Kabul soon, they would withdraw their assets from Afghanistan, in another sign of the immense anxiety surrounding Afghanistan's transition in the coming year.
Although last Sunday the Loya Jirga in Kabul approved the Bilateral Security Agreement, which would guarantee a close military partnership between the U.S. and Afghanistan in the years following the NATO troop withdraw in 2014, the fate of the pact remains uncertain as President Hamid Karzai has said it would not be signed until after the April elections, and only then, if his preconditions were met by the U.S.
Already, business insiders report that large scale investments and business deals have withdrawn or stalled in recent days as the BSA swings in the wind, with no one sure whether or not foreign troops will have a presence in Afghanistan post-2014.
"The conflict over the signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement has caused major losses in economic activities in the markets," a car dealer in Kabul named Mohammad Rafee Sakh said. "These days, we haven't even soled out one car, and if the BSA isn't signed, we would likely transfer our money abroad."
President Karzai has said the U.S. must meet his three preconditions for signing the BSA: transparent elections in April, no raids on Afghan homes and a breakthrough in talks with the Taliban.
U.S. officials have scoffed at these demands, which caught them off-guard, and said they have no "magic wand" to fix all of Afghanistan's problems simply because Karzai has issued them an ultimatum.
Washington has said the BSA must be signed before the end of the year so that plans for residual troops can be made with NATO allies. If not finalized by 2014, the U.S. has indicated the entire deal could be in jeopardy, which could mean no foreign troops will stay in Afghanistan after December of next year.
"We demand Karzai make the future of this agreement clear so we can initiate our business with confidence," Sakh said.
"If the BSA isn't signed and security is not restored, business activities may collapse in the country," another car dealer named Mohammad Rafiq said. "We hope that the agreement is signed soon."
Those in the real estate industry have had a similar experience in recent days, and were similarly as foreboding about the future of their businesses sans a security deal.
"All people want to see the agreement signed, these days business activities have declined and no one is prepared to buy a house," real estate broker Abdullah Mohammadi said.
"Business activities have noticeably declined in the country these days - people await the future of the Bilateral Security Agreement," another broker named Rahmatollah Faizi added.
The only outspoken opponents of the accord have been the Taliban, Hezb-e-Islami, the Islamic Student Association and Jabhe Wahdat Milli. They have said the continued presence of foreign troops would violate Afghan sovereignty and perpetuate the insurgent conflict.
The BSA and the security transition it codifies, along with the April elections, have been called critical tests for Afghanistan as it looks to stand on its own two feet after 12 years of war. For businessmen inside and outside the country, these tests are perhaps less political than they are for others, with bottom lines in the balance.