In a meeting with the British Prime Minister David Cameron in London, NATO Secretary General Andres Fog Rasmussen expressed optimism about the Kabul-Washington security pact being signed soon while also repeating warnings about what could happen if the U.S. and its allies did not stay past December.
"We will need a security agreement to actually deploy a training mission after 2014," Rasmussen said. "At the end of the day, I think we will get that signature, because a lot is at stake for Afghanistan."
Tensions between the U.S. and Afghanistan have flared in recent months over a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), which President Hamid Karzai has refused to sign until the U.S. meets certain preconditions, including getting the Taliban to the negotiating table for peace talks.
Many outside and inside Afghanistan have lambasted Karzai for his intransigence. The BSA, which would ensure a continued presence of foreign troops post-2014, is thought by many Afghans to be the only way in which the progress of the past decade can be secured in wake of this year's troop withdraw.
"One thing is that while we do believe the Afghan security forces will be able to take full responsibility for security in Afghanistan, we also believe that they will need continued training and assistance," Rasumussen said.
The Afghan forces took the lead in 2013, and were said to have largely performed well, but still major concerns about technical and financial capacities remain.
"But quite another thing is that if we are not present in Afghanistan after 2014, it might also be difficult to generate sufficient financial resources to actually sustain the Afghan security forces. And if not, the Afghan government can't afford to pay salaries to the Afghan security forces," the NATO chief added.
The budget issue is one U.S. negotiators have hung over Kabul's head, noting that some 4.1 billion USD in military aid would be pulled off the table if the BSA is rejected.
"If the bilateral security agreement is not signed, how can we pay the salaries of 350,000 military personnel, to equip them and provide facilities?" asked Afghan political analyst Noor-ul-Haq Ulomi. "Insecurity is a major threat to our country and further challenges will emerge, but in order to avoid more obstacles, we need to ink the pact."
Tensions between the U.S. and Afghanistan have mounted around the BSA debate, seemingly separate but likely related. Karzai has criticized the U.S. in the media about civilian casualties and ruffled feathers over the issue of prisoner releases from Bagram Prison.
Despite continued rhetoric coming from U.S. President Barack Obama about America's commitment to Afghanistan, many in Washington have indicated a "zero-option" is growing more likely every day that the BSA goes unsigned.
The bind the U.S. and NATO armed forces find themselves in is a tough one; they must plan and prepare for both potentialities.
"We have to plan for a new training mission, but we also have to plan for the possibility that we will not be invited. And if we are not invited to stay after 2014, we will have to withdraw everything - equipment and personnel - before the end of 2014. And it takes some time to close down bases, to move out equipment and personnel. So obviously, we are faced with some planning problems," Rasmussen explained.
But the top NATO leader remained confident it would all be handled in time. "And as I said, I do believe that at the end of the day, we will get a signature on the necessary security arrangement."