A new U.S. intelligence estimate predicts that gains the United States and allies made in Afghanistan will be significantly rolled back by 2017, even if some U.S. troops remain after next year, the Washington Post reported on Saturday.
The intelligence report also predicts that Afghanistan will quickly fall into chaos if Washington and Kabul fail to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA), which would keep an international military contingent there after the NATO combat mission ends in 2014.
The newspaper cited officials who have read the classified report, which includes input from the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, or were briefed on its conclusions.
"In the absence of a continuing presence and continuing financial support," the intelligence assessment "suggests the situation would deteriorate very rapidly," the newspaper quoted one U.S. official familiar with the report as saying.
The newspaper also said some officials felt the report on the potential outcome of the longest war in U.S. history was overly pessimistic and did not take into account progress made by Afghanistan's security forces.
"I think what we're going to see is a recalibration of political power, territory and that kind of thing," the paper quoted one official as saying. "It's not going to be an inevitable rise of the Taliban."
President Hamid Karzai has delayed signing the security pact ever since a Loya Jirga in Kabul approved it last month. He has made new demands for signing the accord while U.S. officials have said that unless a deal is reached before the end of the year, all troops and funding could be withdrawn in the coming year.
Afghan military experts and officials have come out in a chorus of criticism against Karzai for delaying the signing over the past few weeks
Mirdad Nejrabi, the Chairman of the Parliament's Internal Security Commission (ISC), was the most recent official to come out and urge the government to finalize the BSA.
"The government of Afghanistan must decide and the reasons behind not signing the agreement should be clear and if they are signing it, then they should explain the delay," he said.
However, many have held out in solidarity with Karzai.
"The people of Afghanistan are brave and courageous; they will never give in to this kind of threats. We won't sign this agreement until it is in favor of Afghanistan," said the head of Parliament's Defense Committee Hamayoun Hamayoun.
The U.S. currently has 47,000 troops in Afghanistan, and is expected to take on an increasingly hands-off role in Afghan security in the coming months, and potentially years, primarily training, advising and assisting the Afghan forces.
Some 8,000 troops would be expected to stay behind post-2014 if the BSA is signed.