Australian Ambassador Jon Philp said on Friday that Australia's military involvement in Afghanistan post-2014 was predicated on the Kabul-Washington Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) being finalized.
Australia, while not a member of NATO is a close ally with the alliance, and has contributed significantly to the foreign troop presence in Afghanistan since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001. Australia has about 15,000 troops in-country at the moment.
At the end of October, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbot visited Australian troops, most of which are stationed in southern Urozgan province, and announced that Australia's combat mission had ended and they would be heading home before the year was out.
In an exclusive interview with TOLOnews, Ambassador Philp assured that Australia intended to be part of the enduring effort to support Afghanistan and its security forces after the NATO combat mission ends officially in 2014, but he indicated the exact details of that support could not be determined until the BSA was set in stone.
"Next year we will have up to 400 troops remaining in Afghanistan, mostly in Kabul and in Kandahar, and we have talked to the Afghan government about having forces stay through 2015 and after," Philp said.
"But that depends first on the Afghan government and the American government signing the Bilateral Security Agreement, the BSA, and then us working with the Afghan government to decide what we can agree mutually is the right way for us to participate."
He indicated any residual presence of troops would not be for combat purposes but for training, advising and assisting Afghan security forces.
NATO officials in Brussels have indicated the alliance also plans to follow the U.S.' lead when it comes to continued involvement after the combat mission ends. For now, coalition troops are focused on transferring responsibilities over to their Afghan counterparts and getting them as readied as possible, regardless of the post-2014 outlook.
Australian and NATO country leaders await the recommendation of the Loya Jirga, which is set to convene in Kabul on November 21 to deliberate over the BSA. Although the Afghan National Assembly will ultimately decide on the pact, the Jirga's ruling is considered de facto law.
Whether or not it is signed, after over a year of negotiations, is likely to come down to the sensitive issue of troop jurisdiction - if Afghanistan or the U.S. gets criminal jurisdiction over American troops.
Assuming the agreement is finalized, NATO officials have indicated the coalition would likely maintain a presence of 8,000-12,000 troops, two thirds of which would be Americans.
Proponents of the BSA, and a continued presence of foreign troops after 2014, are largely motivated by anxiety about the ability of the Afghan forces and government in Kabul to stem the tide of the Taliban militancy on their own.
Fears of a Fall of Saigon type scenario once the coalition withdraws have also fueled favor for a reconciliation deal between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Ambassador Philp was adamant about the possibility, and merit, of a diplomatic end to the conflict in Afghanistan.
"It's in part about military creating a space in which you could convince the Taliban that they can't win militarily - which is probably true - so they will come and will talk to the government, to work out what the basis for reconciliation, for long-term settlement could possibly be," Philp said.
Most of all, the Ambassador emphasized that things were now in the Afghans' hands and the way forward must be led by them.
"It is now the responsibility of the Afghan government to decide how they want to take it forward, the fight against the insurgency, and work towards having peace," he said. "It is the responsibility of the Afghan government to do it."